Foolish Heart

You heard it hear first (unless, of course, you heard it someplace else before this):

McCain-Giuliani 2008

You're probably thinking that there's no way the Republicans would run two old white guys against either Hillary or Barack; they'd have to have more sense than that. To you all, I offer this and this and beg of you not to overestimate the GOP again.

Here's my thinking: The Republican establishment hates McCain. From what I understand, passionately. They do, however, think, for reasons unknown, that Giuliani is great. So I am simply going with the notion that McCain needs to mollify the establishment in order to get the resources he needs to win the nomination. Because I don't think this is going to be an election about capturing moderate or independent voters (mostly because I think this race will be too polarizing for many fence-sitters and because as the War is McCain's only issue, which is an issue that most people have already made up their minds about). Instead, I think this race will be about turnout, and turnout is driven by enthusiasm, volunteers, money, and energy. All of those things the establishment can give you.

Which leads me to the main weakness of my theory, that McCain will have to pick a evangelical Christian to attract their support. This would be a better argument than your lame "two white males" argument I previously had you advancing (Die straw man! Die!). Obviously, this is a strong argument that puts Huckabee, Santorum, and...?...into play. I guess that's my man point. Is there a standout evangelical candidate these days? If so, why didn't he/she(?) run in this most wide open of fields? I think McCain is going to have to count on getting the votes of the evangelicals, but needs the support of the establishment. At least, he has a better chance of getting establishment support through a VP pick than he does getting the evangelical support.

Back to my pro-Giuliani argument. Giuliani seemed to have run as a version of George Bush, with a messier personal life and worse hair. He pretty much went with the neo-cons for foreign policy and Reaganomics for fiscal policy. This makes the establishment happy. Because they actually think things have been going pretty damn well these past 7 years. (Which is why McCain's VP choice is likely not to make a wit of difference when Obama takes office). The GOP loves Rudy so much I bet they even think he could challenge Clinton or Obama in New York. Make 'em spend resources where they don't want to. And obviously he could help in Florida. (Remember, until about a month ago, GOP politicians were still endorsing Giuliani, thinking he was going to take Florida, California, and New York and bury McCain and Romney). There is nothing Captain 911 can't do.

Straw man lives! What about the idea of running Condi? Wouldn't Condi be perfect? You see, if the Dems nominate Hillary, the blacks will be irate and they'll vote for John McCain's VP! And the GOP will win! Or, if the Dems nominate Barack, then women will be irate and they'll vote for John McCain's VP! The GOP cannot lose! Yes, Condi Rice is the answer to all of the GOP's problems. Taking my own advice, I will not overestimate the GOP, but I can't believe for a second that anyone with actual political sense (and, yes, I'm looking at you Kathleen Parker) would think that women or blacks are going to vote for John McCain in order to put Condi near the White House.

Anyway, there you have it. Like the Oregon lottery, this post should be used for entertainment only and not investment purposes.